Destiny Pharmawww.destinypharma.com TICKER: DEST EXCHANGE: AIM
Destiny Pharma is dedicated to the discovery, development and commercialisation of new antimicrobials that have unique properties to improve outcomes for patients and the delivery of medical care into the future.
Destiny Pharma plc (Destiny) is a UK based clinical stage developer of medicines for the prevention and treatment of infections caused by drug-resistant bacteria.
Destiny is delivering the clinical plan for its novel antimicrobial candidate XF-73 (exeporfinium chloride) on target. The initial focus for DEST is in the US where XF-73 has been granted Fast Track Designation by the FDA in the new indication of ‘Prevention of post-surgical Staphylococcal infection’. The Fast Track supports speedy development of drugs to prevent life-threatening disease.
Following the recent Investigational New Drug (IND) opening, XF-73 is due to enter Phase IIb studies which should lead to data readout in H219. Destiny recently clarified the development plan for XF-73, which has already been trialled in 166 subjects over the course of five Phase I/II studies, detailing the standard safety studies required by FDA. In our view the three Phase I dermal safety studies detailed represent a relatively low risk hurdle towards completing the Phase III ready package.
The terms of Destiny’s December commercialisation and development agreement with China Medical Systems (CMS) included exchange of Asian rights (ex-Japan) in return for a £6m equity stake and data sharing. This validates the XF platform clinical and commercial potential and could help Destiny to accelerate the development of XF-73 and the earlier stage products. China is the world’s second largest consumer of antibiotics so it has a crucial role in managing the threat of AMR.
Our sum-of-parts DCF valuation of Destiny Pharma, using a 12.5% drug development discount rate, rises slightly to give a current worth of £117m (269p/share) after rolling our forecasts forwards and updating for end December 2017 cash. The current market cap implies a low probability of success in the lead program, despite the up to twofold likelihood of success in anti-infection indications vs the average rate.
Foreign buyers gorging on UK stocks
Document can be downloaded here: UK plc ‘going for a song’
Being a shareholder in a company that receives a juicy takeover offer is a marvellous feeling. Something that many fortunate investors have experienced over the past 3 years. Thanks to a spate of M&A bids by deep pocketed overseas buyers – partly triggered by the June 2016 Brexit result, which sent the £ tumbling and adversely affected the FTSE.
Consequently today, given this trend is unlikely to end anytime soon, we’ve highlighted 30 possible acquisition ideas in the attached research paper. Spilt equally between large and smallcap stocks – covering a broad selection of industries.
What’s more we believe most of these businesses are underpinned by strong fundamentals and substantial upside in the event of predatory interest.
According to Factset Mergerstat/BVR, the average bid premium paid for such deals between 2004-14 was 30% – with the figure trending upwards since the global financial crisis.
Happy investing. Published 27th August 2019